As Obama and Hillary battle it out for who is the anointed candidate something very interesting is happening. Back around mid-February most pre-primary interest shown in my stats was for either Obama or Hillary.
But since that time there has been movement towards Rudy Giuliani on the Republican side and Al Gore on the Democratic side. Yes, you see that correctly. Each day Al has garnered a bit more online activity.
Looking at just the past three days, Al Gore surpassed BOTH Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama! More people have searched for information on Al, more have clicked on the ads for Al Gore hats than for either Barak or Hillary. Looking at only data from today, Al Gore is way ahead of both so-called from runners on the Democratic side!
Will Al run is the big question. One thing he has is a message, a message he has worked on for years and one we know he believes. Can that compare to Barak or Hillary? Will we get the chance to re-elect Al Gore in 2008?
Is it time for an Al Gore cap?
Mac the Observer
2/28/07
Republican Candidate Update
Interest in the Republican candidates for President is picking up according to the activity shown in my monitoring statistics. In the past three days Rudy Giuliani has nearly reached the activity level of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton! Looking over the past four days he is about tied with Hillary.
This is good news for Rudy and his followers. It should also be seen as good news for the Republicans whose candidates have been registering little interest in my unscientific study.
Is it time to get a Rudy Giuliani hat?
Mac the Observer
This is good news for Rudy and his followers. It should also be seen as good news for the Republicans whose candidates have been registering little interest in my unscientific study.
Is it time to get a Rudy Giuliani hat?
Mac the Observer
2/22/07
Those Republican Candidates
Today we are looking at John McCain, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani as candidates for the 2008 presidential election. How are they doing on my "internet interest" meter? Over a period of nearly two weeks, far more people have searched for information about John McCain than the others. Few have appeared to be interested in Rudy if interest means searching online for information..
But, we can't leave it on that simplistic note. We assume that people who search for information on these candidates and who are VERY interested in them will show that interest by clicking on a link to caps for the candidate. Not a single McCain person did that! Yet three percent of Rudy's people clicked on the cap link! Mitt Romney is again in the middle.
Does Rudy have fewer but more committed followers? Does McCain have a wider audience of only mildly interested supporters? It is interesting to watch the smoke signals.
But, we can't leave it on that simplistic note. We assume that people who search for information on these candidates and who are VERY interested in them will show that interest by clicking on a link to caps for the candidate. Not a single McCain person did that! Yet three percent of Rudy's people clicked on the cap link! Mitt Romney is again in the middle.
Does Rudy have fewer but more committed followers? Does McCain have a wider audience of only mildly interested supporters? It is interesting to watch the smoke signals.
2/20/07
Ten Days Evaluation
The presidential candidates of the moment are sifting themselves into top tier and lower tier. Looking at my ten days of data and non-scientific survey it seems like Obama and Hillary are each generating far more interest than all the other candidates taken together. On the Republican side John McCain leads the pack but the interest shown in him is only about 5% of that shown either Democratic leader.
Amazingly, over 10 days the click-thru rate (ratio of those who see my ads to the actual clicks on the ads) is an identical percentage for both Hillary and Obama! In this ten day period he has about 50% more ad views than her. But looking at the data from Feb 15-20, she has twice as many clicks as Obama. In ten days more than half a million people have searched for info on these two candidates according to my data.
During the 3-day weekend six times more people searched for Hillary-related information online than searched for Obama. This does not seem to square with the official pundits who claim people do not want to know more about Hillary!
It is exciting to see so much early interest in the coming presidential elections! Hopefully we will get to see these candidates, scrutinize them and ultimately pick the best one. Promote your candidate with a hat!
Mac the Observer
Amazingly, over 10 days the click-thru rate (ratio of those who see my ads to the actual clicks on the ads) is an identical percentage for both Hillary and Obama! In this ten day period he has about 50% more ad views than her. But looking at the data from Feb 15-20, she has twice as many clicks as Obama. In ten days more than half a million people have searched for info on these two candidates according to my data.
During the 3-day weekend six times more people searched for Hillary-related information online than searched for Obama. This does not seem to square with the official pundits who claim people do not want to know more about Hillary!
It is exciting to see so much early interest in the coming presidential elections! Hopefully we will get to see these candidates, scrutinize them and ultimately pick the best one. Promote your candidate with a hat!
Mac the Observer
2/15/07
Five Days of Data
How are the presidential candidates faring as far as certain online searches about them? Looking at Obama and Hillary there are some interesting observations. On January 15 three times more people searched for Obama than Hillary in our online experiment. We are making an assumption that the most serious supporters will be those who click on a link to view candidate hats. On Feb 15th three times more people clicked on a Hillary link than on Obama's link.
Scanning the period Feb 13-15 this is what I see: Nearly six times more people were interested in Obama than Hillary by search count. BUT more people followed a link to her hats than to his. What can be concluded? As this week has progressed there is a growing interest in Hillary and more of her supporters -- as evidenced in their clicking on a link to see caps -- are seriously interested in her candidacy.
There is little interest in Gore, Richardson or Rudy in my unscientific survey. Twice as many people showed interest in McCain as did in Romney during Feb 11-15. But not a single McCain searcher clicked to see his hats. Does that mean they are not very serious and would not wear a McCain cap? There were a handful of individuals ready to click on the link to Romney hats.
The percentage of people who click on the link to hats compared to the number of people who see the ads with link to hats is called the "click thru rate." During Feb 11-15 Hillary's click thru rate was four times that of Obama. On Feb 11 they had about the same click thru rate, on the 12th she was double him, on the 13th she was ten times him! Her click thru rate the next two days was between 6 to 8 times his. So she is clearly picking up interested followers.
If you want to pick a hat for any of these candidates, check this out.
Mac the Observer
Scanning the period Feb 13-15 this is what I see: Nearly six times more people were interested in Obama than Hillary by search count. BUT more people followed a link to her hats than to his. What can be concluded? As this week has progressed there is a growing interest in Hillary and more of her supporters -- as evidenced in their clicking on a link to see caps -- are seriously interested in her candidacy.
There is little interest in Gore, Richardson or Rudy in my unscientific survey. Twice as many people showed interest in McCain as did in Romney during Feb 11-15. But not a single McCain searcher clicked to see his hats. Does that mean they are not very serious and would not wear a McCain cap? There were a handful of individuals ready to click on the link to Romney hats.
The percentage of people who click on the link to hats compared to the number of people who see the ads with link to hats is called the "click thru rate." During Feb 11-15 Hillary's click thru rate was four times that of Obama. On Feb 11 they had about the same click thru rate, on the 12th she was double him, on the 13th she was ten times him! Her click thru rate the next two days was between 6 to 8 times his. So she is clearly picking up interested followers.
If you want to pick a hat for any of these candidates, check this out.
Mac the Observer
2/12/07
Who Leads the Pack?
Is there a direct correlation between the time TV news devotes to the various presidential candidates and the interest in them shown by online searching? Hmmm...yesterday was Obama's announcement.
Looking at my very unscientific poll using just my data for today it seems like there is some bit of interest stirring for the Republican players. Romney and McCain both show some online searches, but the most searches for a Republican (non-)candidate are for Rudy today. And Romney bests McCain if you are counting. Being hawkish on the war may not be a good way to get votes, Rudy is trying that today so we'll be interested in checking his support tomorrow.
Now on to the wild Democratic online searches for presidential candidates. Note that at the moment we are not following John Edwards.
There is basically no interest in Al Gore or Bill Richardson today — or yesterday. The leaders in the blue camp are still Obama and Hillary. Obama's followers have slowed a bit since yesterday's feeding frenzy and Hillary's have become more active. In today's searches she is closing the gap with Obama. Both Hillary and Obama are generating an incredible amount of interest compared to their Democratic and Republican peers.
Mac the Observer
Looking at my very unscientific poll using just my data for today it seems like there is some bit of interest stirring for the Republican players. Romney and McCain both show some online searches, but the most searches for a Republican (non-)candidate are for Rudy today. And Romney bests McCain if you are counting. Being hawkish on the war may not be a good way to get votes, Rudy is trying that today so we'll be interested in checking his support tomorrow.
Now on to the wild Democratic online searches for presidential candidates. Note that at the moment we are not following John Edwards.
There is basically no interest in Al Gore or Bill Richardson today — or yesterday. The leaders in the blue camp are still Obama and Hillary. Obama's followers have slowed a bit since yesterday's feeding frenzy and Hillary's have become more active. In today's searches she is closing the gap with Obama. Both Hillary and Obama are generating an incredible amount of interest compared to their Democratic and Republican peers.
Mac the Observer
2/11/07
Hunting for Hats, the Process
I hunted through hundreds of hats for seven different candidates. The available designs for each candidate were quite telling. There were many hats for Obama and Hillary and I had to limit my choices.
In the caps catagorized as promoting Hillary for president there were many hats with negative comments. These were created by people and deliberately mislabeled so someone searching to promote Hillary would come across these less-than-nice choices. I removed all of those from my selection.
About half the hats for Bill Richardson were for his 2006 run for Governor, not the 2008 presidential election. A large percent of the hats for Rudy said "I Love Rudy" or "Rudy Loves Me." The other candidates had one or two such hats, but not Rudy! He won the contest for most hats with a heart on them.
Mitt Romney's hats had many negative slogans. I removed all that I noticed. John McCain and John Edwards didn't seem to generate much interest in those people who create the graphics for hats. I couldn't find enough caps for Edwards to create a web page and McCain's selections are slim.
Several cap designs for Al Gore mentioned "re-elect" Al Gore! And to keep things "light" I included a page of Dick Cheney hats which carry messages right from the news. See the hat categories.
Mac the Observer
In the caps catagorized as promoting Hillary for president there were many hats with negative comments. These were created by people and deliberately mislabeled so someone searching to promote Hillary would come across these less-than-nice choices. I removed all of those from my selection.
About half the hats for Bill Richardson were for his 2006 run for Governor, not the 2008 presidential election. A large percent of the hats for Rudy said "I Love Rudy" or "Rudy Loves Me." The other candidates had one or two such hats, but not Rudy! He won the contest for most hats with a heart on them.
Mitt Romney's hats had many negative slogans. I removed all that I noticed. John McCain and John Edwards didn't seem to generate much interest in those people who create the graphics for hats. I couldn't find enough caps for Edwards to create a web page and McCain's selections are slim.
Several cap designs for Al Gore mentioned "re-elect" Al Gore! And to keep things "light" I included a page of Dick Cheney hats which carry messages right from the news. See the hat categories.
Mac the Observer
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